Exponential yet manageable

We can accelerate forever, yet never hit a wall or singularity

Far from causing a ‘technological singularity’, progress can be both exponential and quite manageable.

For one thing, many dramatic improvements require zero effort from those who will benefit (like with faster communication, shipping, computers, etc.) This is no accident, of course. When a company creates a new product, they must make it easy to use, and take advantage of customers’ existing behaviors and expectations.

Also, human minds can perform many creative feats without any conscious effort. We can walk up stairs without having to think about it, even if they’re unlike any set of stairs we’ve seen before (e.g. a different color, height, surface texture, etc.)

So, while many improvements require no direct behavior changes at all, many more require only imperceptible ones, like adjusting to a slight change in stairwell design. It turns out that billions of people can adapt to thousands of changes over the course of a year, and never be overwhelmed by any of them. A single trip to renew your driver's license can cause more angst than riding this exponential wave.

Having said that, not all changes are imperceptible or effortless. Some are difficult and frustrating, but I think these are the exception.

And one has to distinguish between those *make* the improvement and those who *use* it. Using an improvement requires many orders of magnitude less effort than making it. So, while one person spends years creating a new technology, millions can take advantage of it within moments, potentially.